The Guardians aren’t out of it until . . .

Yandy DîazYou’ve been warned. The Rays are going to win the American League Championship Series. Why? Because Yandy Diaz says so, that’s why.

“It all ends tomorrow,” Díaz said, after the Rays hung on to win Game Five, 3-1, in Progressive Field Sunday. “We’re going to win tomorrow.”

His two-run homer in Game Four and his 3-for-5 performance in Game Five give him some psychological leverage.

But unless you’re a spit, scuff, mud, or scratchballer living rent free in opposing hitters’s heads (good afternoon, Hall of Famers Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry), or a road runner living likewise before you reach base in the first place (likewise, Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio and Rickey Henderson), it’s not advisable to play the psych-out card.

More often than not, that card becomes bulletin board stuff. The kind that irons the other guys up. Ask David Cone. He’s the Mets pitcher who called Dodgers reliever Jay Howell “a high school pitcher” in a ghostwritten newspaper before Game Two of the 1988 National League Championship Series. Oops.

Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda posted the column on their clubhouse bulletin board. Guess who turned up as the Mets’s Game Two starter. Guess who got beaten like a piñata for five runs in two innings? Guess who ended up losing the pennant in seven games, before the Dodgers went on to bury the Bash Brothers Athletics in five in the World Series?

Díaz might want to beware.

Assume the Guardians have no intention of going home before getting to play a seventh ALCS game, even in Tampa. They didn’t play terribly in Game Five. They did everything they could short of having the Rays’s pitchers on the day kidnapped, and got only one run on a ground ball for their trouble.

Predicting victory the day after you take a 3-2 series advantage isn’t always a safe prediction. The combatants who predict their outcomes are never really safe. Joe Namath remains among the outliers.

Sonny Liston once predicted he’d flatten an upstart kid known then as Cassius Clay early, often, and permanently. (I don’t think it’ll go past two. It better not go past three.) He got out-thought most of the fight, then got so out-boxed in the sixth round that he couldn’t answer the bell for the seventh.

Jack Kent Cooke was a very confident Los Angeles Lakers owner before Game Seven of the 19679 NBA finals. Confidence is good. Unless it compels you to order championship balloons suspended from the L.A. Forum rafters in advance. And, to order flyers on the Forum’s seats saying what would happen when the Lakers won.

Somebody forgot to tell Bill Russell and his Boston Celtics. Ruh-roh. Nobody needed to tell him or them. The furious Celtics ended up upsetting the Lakers by two points.

Eat Your Vegetables, Not Your Children Dept.—Remember Mike Tyson saying he’d eat Lennox Lewis’s children? Now, remember Lewis having Tyson for lunch in the eighth round?

You can assume Seattle fans still haven’t forgiven Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselback for his 2003 NFL wild card game overtime-opening faux pas after winning the coin toss. He took the ref’s microphone and purred, for all to hear, “We want the ball, and we’re gonna score.”

Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris responded, “That’s what you think.” Hasselbeck’s pick-six throw ended up in Green’s hands. Green ended up going 52 yards for the win. The only Seahawks comfort was the Packers being stopped in overtime by the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round.

Now, you can’t really fault Díaz for feeling a little overconfident. The Rays did tie with the National League pennant-winning Brewers for the Show’s best home record this year. The Guards had the sixth-best road record. The Rays get to throw Freddy Peralta—the former Brewer, the guy who deflated as a Met before he was re-inflated as a Ray—out to start Game Six. The Guards are all but forced to go to a bullpen Game Six.

They’ve been there, done that, time enough and again enough. Their skipper Stephen Vogt isn’t exactly worried, about Díaz’s confidence or anything else the Rays might dream up for the Guards bulletin board.

“We don’t have another choice,” Vogt told MLB.com’s Adam Berry. “We don’t like being in this position, but, like we said the last series, our backs were against the wall. They’ve been against the wall for a long time. This is when this team thrives.”

The Guards were one win away from early winter vacation in their division series against the feel-better White Sox. Then they out-scored the Pope Sox 20-8 and swept the next three. Pope, schmope, listen to a yogi: the Guards aren’t out of it until they’re out of it. Even Díaz knows it.

“We know we’ve got our work cut out for us,” Vogt went on. “It’s a really good team, and a really good team when they play at home, especially. So we know this is going to be tough, but if there’s a group I’m betting on to get this done, it’s our guys.”

They’ll have to. They didn’t look like their usual contact-hitting, brainy-baserunning, timely-swinging selves on Sunday. Sure, their lone run came on a mid-game ground out. But they’ve scored only four runs since Petey Halpin’s Game Three two-run homer and beyond-epic bat flip off it.

The Guards will open with Shawn Armstrong, a reliever who was so-so on the season but who’s been wonderful world this postseason so far. (1.51 fielding-independent pitching; 4.5 K/9, no walks, in 7.2 innings including four in the ALCS.) It’s a risk since he’s appeared in three games this ALCS, and they’ll have to find a way through Peralta.

And, through Díaz’s pronouncement of their death.

He gets my Vogt

Stephen Vogt

Stephen Vogt runs out the game-tying bomb he hit toward an A’s walk-off win over the Yankees in late August. The 37-year-old veteran will retire at season’s end.

As legendary 20th century radio malaproprietess Jane Ace might say, we’ve been sitting on pins and cushions awaiting the milestones this season. Pick the season, show yourself who has a shot at reaching which one before the season ends. Nature of the baseball fan beast.

We’re waiting for in-prime Aaron Judge to meet and pass Roger Maris as the American League’s new single-season home run champion. We’re waiting for elder Albert Pujols, who busted Blake Snell’s no-hit bid in the seventh Wednesday, to join the 700 Club—and we don’t mean the one Pat Robertson founded, either.

Waiting for the stars to erupt further in the record books one way or the other is as old as the professional game itself, seemingly. But just as Meryl Streep didn’t bag Academy Awards without solid supporting casts off which to play, baseball’s big men don’t have room to be the big men without the not-so-big men around and behind them.

One of those journeymen will call it a career after the regular season ends. He won’t get a postseason epilogue; his Athletics are about as close to being there as a mouse to trapping the cat. Stephen Vogt is one of those little big men who deserves to be shown the love after a decade which personified the journeyman’s life.

His career began 0-for-32, from 2012 through 28 June 2013. Then, leading off the bottom of the fourth with the A’s ahead 5-0, Vogt sent an 0-2 service from then-Cardinal relief pitcher Joe Kelly down the right field line and over the fence. If you’re going to smash a career-opening slump that went year-to-year, you couldn’t do it better even in the cheesiest film script.

What began ending the longest career-opening position player’s hitless streak since another Athletic (Chris Carter) did it three years before Vogt teed off became a career that included two All-Star selections and clubhouse value to five teams including his return engagement in Oakland this year.

Vogt didn’t make a show of that slump-breaking, first-hit home run. Idolising Barry Bonds when he grew up, Vogt could only remember his father’s advice prior to his making the Show in the first place, after asking as a kid why Bonds stood watching before a home run cleared the fences. “Stephen,” the old man replied, “when you have 500 home runs in the major leagues, you can do whatever you want. Until then, you put your bat down and you run around the bases.”

He told a reporter he made one exception a few months after that first-hit homer, facing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in the 2013 American League division series—his first career game-winner, a bases-loaded RBI single—after fouling off seven in a ten-pitch plate appearance—for the 1-0 win over the Tigers that sent the set to Detroit tied at a game each.

Such moments have been few enough for the 37-year-old who’s caught, played first base, and played in the outfield in his Show decade, but he’s been one of those there-to-be-called-upon who inspired fan loyalty wherever he suited up. “I believe in Stephen Vogt!” became their rallying cry. Over a journey such as his, it has to be appreciated. (The A’s will honour his career before their season-ender against the Angels on 5 October.)

Vogt is realistic about a career that’s paid him a somewhat modest (in baseball terms) but much liveable $14 million.

“I haven’t always been the best player,” he said. “I’ve been one of the best players in the league, I’ve been one of the worst players in the league. I’ve been injured and everywhere in between, I’ve been DFA’d twice, I’ve been traded, I’ve been non-tendered, you name it. I’ve been the guy that knew he was going to have a job next year to the guy that had to fight for his job next year, and just always go out and earn it.”

A guy with that becalmed an attitude is a guy who earns respect without having to reach for the heavens or punch a hole in them. He’s also a guy who earns it on a self-resurrecting World Series champion even if he couldn’t contribute on the field because he was injured. That was Vogt earning a ring regardless with last year’s Braves.

“Vogter is one of the most inspiring players I’ve ever managed,” says Padres manager Bob Melvin, who once managed him with the A’s. “What he means to a clubhouse is immeasurable—two-time All-Star, beloved in Oakland. One of my all-time favorites. Definitely has a future in managing.”

Vogt has picked the brains of Melvin plus managers Mark Kotsay and Craig Counsell (for whom he once played in Milwaukee) along the way, perhaps with just that purpose in mind. He’s been a student of the game as long as he’s played it, and Melvin may not be out of line to suggest his baseball future. If nothing else, too, Vogt may become one of those skippers who knows how to keep his clubhouse engaged.

“He felt passionate about it and spoke up,” Kotsay told reporters, after the A’s beat the Mariners Tuesday. “Does he need to do that at this point in the season when he’s on his last fifteen games? No, he doesn’t. But that shows his character and his love for the game, his love for his teammates. It came across loud and clear.”

“Having him back this year is great,” says Sean Murphy, the A’s catching anchor now, who remembers Vogt mentoring him right out of the gate in spring training 2017 and taking him around to meet everyone the better not to let him feel like just another rook. “When I heard they signed him, I was like, ‘Yes, awesome, I can’t wait to play with him again’.”

“I had a coach tell me, ‘Every day you take the field, there’s a little boy or girl that’s at their very first baseball game and you need to show them the correct way to play’,” Vogt says,  “and I’ve taken that to heart. And every night, that’s why I run hard, that’s why I play hard. It’s the correct way to play baseball.”

We’re not waiting for Vogt to punch a hole in the heavens for a major milestone. But we might be waiting to hit the Net running or pick up what’s left of the newspapers or flip on the television news and learn that Vogt’s going to be somebody’s next manager.

For now, let’s do honour to the Stephen Vogts who didn’t have to be game breakers, postseason race difference makers, or record busters, but who were equal value to their teams than the ones who earn the MVPs or the Cy Young Awards or just plain break the games and the championships open wide enough.

With the Vogts among them, the big men who can’t do it all by themselves don’t have to do it all by themselves. They don’t have to try striking guys out with single pitches equaling three strikes or hitting six-run homers with every swing. The Vogts let them play the game with the least possible additional stress.

That’s what the A’s will honour iat the end of their otherwise deflated season. It’s a tribute the hint of which other clubs might care to take when it’s time for their own veteran journeymen to step away from the field.