You’ve been warned. The Rays are going to win the American League Championship Series. Why? Because Yandy Diaz says so, that’s why.
“It all ends tomorrow,” Díaz said, after the Rays hung on to win Game Five, 3-1, in Progressive Field Sunday. “We’re going to win tomorrow.”
His two-run homer in Game Four and his 3-for-5 performance in Game Five give him some psychological leverage.
But unless you’re a spit, scuff, mud, or scratchballer living rent free in opposing hitters’s heads (good afternoon, Hall of Famers Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry), or a road runner living likewise before you reach base in the first place (likewise, Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio and Rickey Henderson), it’s not advisable to play the psych-out card.
More often than not, that card becomes bulletin board stuff. The kind that irons the other guys up. Ask David Cone. He’s the Mets pitcher who called Dodgers reliever Jay Howell “a high school pitcher” in a ghostwritten newspaper before Game Two of the 1988 National League Championship Series. Oops.
Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda posted the column on their clubhouse bulletin board. Guess who turned up as the Mets’s Game Two starter. Guess who got beaten like a piñata for five runs in two innings? Guess who ended up losing the pennant in seven games, before the Dodgers went on to bury the Bash Brothers Athletics in five in the World Series?
Díaz might want to beware.
Assume the Guardians have no intention of going home before getting to play a seventh ALCS game, even in Tampa. They didn’t play terribly in Game Five. They did everything they could short of having the Rays’s pitchers on the day kidnapped, and got only one run on a ground ball for their trouble.
Predicting victory the day after you take a 3-2 series advantage isn’t always a safe prediction. The combatants who predict their outcomes are never really safe. Joe Namath remains among the outliers.
Sonny Liston once predicted he’d flatten an upstart kid known then as Cassius Clay early, often, and permanently. (I don’t think it’ll go past two. It better not go past three.) He got out-thought most of the fight, then got so out-boxed in the sixth round that he couldn’t answer the bell for the seventh.
Jack Kent Cooke was a very confident Los Angeles Lakers owner before Game Seven of the 19679 NBA finals. Confidence is good. Unless it compels you to order championship balloons suspended from the L.A. Forum rafters in advance. And, to order flyers on the Forum’s seats saying what would happen when the Lakers won.
Somebody forgot to tell Bill Russell and his Boston Celtics. Ruh-roh. Nobody needed to tell him or them. The furious Celtics ended up upsetting the Lakers by two points.
Eat Your Vegetables, Not Your Children Dept.—Remember Mike Tyson saying he’d eat Lennox Lewis’s children? Now, remember Lewis having Tyson for lunch in the eighth round?
You can assume Seattle fans still haven’t forgiven Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselback for his 2003 NFL wild card game overtime-opening faux pas after winning the coin toss. He took the ref’s microphone and purred, for all to hear, “We want the ball, and we’re gonna score.”
Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris responded, “That’s what you think.” Hasselbeck’s pick-six throw ended up in Green’s hands. Green ended up going 52 yards for the win. The only Seahawks comfort was the Packers being stopped in overtime by the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round.
Now, you can’t really fault Díaz for feeling a little overconfident. The Rays did tie with the National League pennant-winning Brewers for the Show’s best home record this year. The Guards had the sixth-best road record. The Rays get to throw Freddy Peralta—the former Brewer, the guy who deflated as a Met before he was re-inflated as a Ray—out to start Game Six. The Guards are all but forced to go to a bullpen Game Six.
They’ve been there, done that, time enough and again enough. Their skipper Stephen Vogt isn’t exactly worried, about Díaz’s confidence or anything else the Rays might dream up for the Guards bulletin board.
“We don’t have another choice,” Vogt told MLB.com’s Adam Berry. “We don’t like being in this position, but, like we said the last series, our backs were against the wall. They’ve been against the wall for a long time. This is when this team thrives.”
The Guards were one win away from early winter vacation in their division series against the feel-better White Sox. Then they out-scored the Pope Sox 20-8 and swept the next three. Pope, schmope, listen to a yogi: the Guards aren’t out of it until they’re out of it. Even Díaz knows it.
“We know we’ve got our work cut out for us,” Vogt went on. “It’s a really good team, and a really good team when they play at home, especially. So we know this is going to be tough, but if there’s a group I’m betting on to get this done, it’s our guys.”
They’ll have to. They didn’t look like their usual contact-hitting, brainy-baserunning, timely-swinging selves on Sunday. Sure, their lone run came on a mid-game ground out. But they’ve scored only four runs since Petey Halpin’s Game Three two-run homer and beyond-epic bat flip off it.
The Guards will open with Shawn Armstrong, a reliever who was so-so on the season but who’s been wonderful world this postseason so far. (1.51 fielding-independent pitching; 4.5 K/9, no walks, in 7.2 innings including four in the ALCS.) It’s a risk since he’s appeared in three games this ALCS, and they’ll have to find a way through Peralta.
And, through Díaz’s pronouncement of their death.






